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PT

Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc (PTGX)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $5.55M and GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.55. Versus S&P Global consensus, EPS modestly beat and revenue materially missed: EPS -$0.55 vs -$0.582 (beat), revenue $5.55M vs $8.32M (miss). Values retrieved from S&P Global*; actuals from the company’s 8‑K .
  • Management submitted the NDA for icotrokinra (psoriasis) in July and reiterated rusfertide (PV) NDA filing is on track for Q4 2025, strengthening late-stage pipeline visibility .
  • Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities reached $673.0M as of June 30, 2025, with runway “through at least end of 2028,” supporting internal R&D progression and upcoming regulatory milestones .
  • Near-term catalysts: UEGW oral presentation of icotrokinra ANTHEM Phase 2b UC data (Oct 7), and Takeda-led rusfertide U.S. NDA submission in Q4; both remain focal drivers of sentiment and estimate revisions .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • NDA submitted for icotrokinra (oral IL‑23R antagonist) in July, covering adults and adolescents 12+ with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis; application includes four pivotal Phase 3 trials (ICONIC‑LEAD, ICONIC‑TOTAL, ICONIC‑ADVANCE 1 & 2) .
  • Rusfertide VERIFY Phase 3 PV data were featured in the ASCO Plenary Session; management hosted an investor call to discuss plenary data and confirmed NDA timing remains Q4 2025 with Takeda .
  • Liquidity strengthened: cash/cash equivalents/marketable securities of $673.0M and stated runway “through at least end of 2028,” enabling continued investment in PN‑881 (IL‑17 oral peptide) and PN‑477 (oral/injectable GLP‑1/GIP/GCGR triple agonist) .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue reliance on collaboration/development services led to a top-line shortfall vs consensus (actual $5.55M vs $8.32M estimate*), underscoring limited near-term revenue levers pre-commercialization *.
  • Operating expense increased YoY: R&D rose to $37.0M (+10% YoY), driven by pre-clinical/discovery spend on PN‑881 and PN‑477, while G&A increased to $10.6M on higher stock-based compensation and personnel costs .
  • Net loss widened YoY to -$34.8M (from -$30.6M), reflecting expense growth and normalized collaboration revenue vs the prior-year Takeda upfront accounting that inflated 1H 2024 results .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
License & Collaboration Revenue ($USD Millions)$170.64 $28.32 $5.55
Research & Development Expense ($USD Millions)$34.90 $35.89 $37.04
General & Administrative Expense ($USD Millions)$8.95 $11.74 $10.55
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$43.86 $47.63 $47.59
Interest Income ($USD Millions)$6.85 $7.57 $7.41
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$131.67 -$11.66 -$34.77
Basic EPS ($)$2.11 -$0.19 -$0.55
Diluted EPS ($)$1.98 -$0.19 -$0.55
KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)$559.17 $697.88 $672.96
Working Capital ($USD Millions)$544.24 $570.75 $567.02
Deferred Revenue ($USD Millions)$30.57 $25.07 $20.06
Total Stockholders’ Equity ($USD Millions)$675.30 $689.05 $668.02
Total Stock-Based Compensation (Quarter, $USD Millions)$9.09 $13.80 $10.91
Q2 2025 Actual vs S&P Global ConsensusRevenueEPS
Actual$5.55M -$0.55
Consensus Mean*$8.32M-$0.582
Surprise-$2.77M miss*+$0.03 beat*

Values retrieved from S&P Global*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Icotrokinra NDA (Psoriasis)2025“NDA submissions to the FDA potentially in 2025” (Q4 FY24) NDA submitted July 2025 Raised (from potential to submitted)
Rusfertide NDA (PV)Q4 2025Topline VERIFY data Mar 2025; PV day Feb; NDA filing expected in 2025 (implied) U.S. NDA filing by Takeda expected in Q4 2025 Maintained (timing affirmed)
Icotrokinra ANTHEM (UC) dataOct 2025Positive topline announced Mar 2025; full data later in 2025 Oral presentation at UEGW Oct 7 Maintained/Scheduled
Cash RunwayThrough 2028Strong cash position; runway through at least end of 2028 (Q1 2025) Reiterated runway through at least end of 2028 Maintained
PN‑477 (Obesity)2025Candidate nomination expected Q2 2025 Development candidate selected; investor call June 30 Achieved milestone

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A full Q2 earnings call transcript was not available in our document repository. Company hosted investor calls on June 2 (ASCO plenary data) and June 30 (PN‑477 nomination) .

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Regulatory/Legal (NDAs)FY24: potential 2025 NDAs; Q1: progressing to year-end filings Icotrokinra NDA submitted; rusfertide NDA on track for Q4 Positive momentum
Clinical ReadoutsFY24: VERIFY topline expected Mar; Q1: ASCO plenary for VERIFY; ANTHEM UC topline positive UEGW oral presentation scheduled (ANTHEM UC) Continuing execution
Partnerships (Takeda/JNJ)FY24 Takeda deal economics/upfront; JNJ milestones Takeda to file rusfertide NDA in Q4; JNJ partnership for icotrokinra maintained Steady collaboration
R&D ExecutionPN‑881 nominated FY24; Q1 emphasis on pre-clinical advancement PN‑477 obesity candidate selected; PN‑881 pre-clinical data at SID Pipeline broadening
Financial DisciplineFY24 cash build via upfront/milestones; Q1 $697.9M cash $673.0M cash; runway reiterated through 2028 Strong liquidity

Management Commentary

  • “Thus far, 2025 has been a year of breakthrough accomplishments… ASCO Plenary… triple agonist anti-obesity peptide… NDA filing of icotrokinra… we look forward to the NDA filing of rusfertide for polycythemia vera, and advancing our wholly owned early-stage assets PN‑881 and PN‑477” — Dinesh V. Patel, Ph.D., President & CEO .
  • R&D expense increases driven by pre-clinical and discovery work on PN‑881 and PN‑477, partially offset by declines in rusfertide expenses post‑VERIFY; G&A increased on stock-based compensation and personnel-related costs .

Q&A Highlights

  • A comprehensive Q2 earnings call transcript was not located; however, the company held two investor calls: June 2 (ASCO plenary VERIFY data discussion) and June 30 (PN‑477 nomination). No additional Q&A details were furnished in filings or press releases .

Estimates Context

  • Versus S&P Global consensus, Q2 2025 EPS slightly beat and revenue missed: EPS -$0.55 vs -$0.582; revenue $5.55M vs $8.32M. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
  • Implications: Top-line shortfall may prompt cautious near-term revenue modeling until commercialization; EPS outperformance was minor and driven by interest income and disciplined opex rather than sustainable revenue scaling *.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Late-stage pipeline visibility improved: icotrokinra NDA is submitted and rusfertide NDA remains on track for Q4, creating defined regulatory catalysts into 2H25/early 2026 .
  • Liquidity is robust with $673.0M cash and stated runway through 2028, enabling internal asset advancement (PN‑881, PN‑477) without immediate financing needs .
  • Revenue is currently collaboration/service-based and variable; expect modeling sensitivity around recognition timing and milestone schedules until commercial launch .
  • Watch October UEGW for icotrokinra ANTHEM UC full data (potentially de‑risking GI expansion narrative) and Takeda’s rusfertide NDA submission cadence in Q4 for regulatory validation .
  • Opex trends: R&D elevation reflects proactive investment in next‑gen oral peptide programs; scrutinize cost discipline alongside timeline execution to preserve runway .
  • Estimate adjustments likely focus on revenue timing and regulatory milestone probabilities; EPS sensitivity modest near-term given interest income and opex balance *.
  • Near-term trading lens: Binary-ish catalysts (UEGW presentation, NDA filings) can drive volatility; positioning should reflect regulatory event risk and partnership execution dynamics .